🌱 A Slow Thaw After the Freeze
Canada’s housing market is finally showing some movement after a long chill.
📊 According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales have risen for four straight months.
But here’s the catch: the recovery is patchy. Some regions are warming up, while others, like Toronto, are still lagging far behind their pandemic highs.
👉 John Lusink, president of Right at Home Realty, says Toronto remains a buyer’s market. Listings are steady, sales are creeping up, but activity is nowhere near the frenzy of a few years ago.
💸 Affordability: Slightly Better, But Still Tough
The pandemic’s price surge shut many buyers out, and even with recent dips, homes remain costly.
📉 Ratehub.ca’s data shows the income needed to buy a home fell slightly in July in most major markets, from Toronto to Vancouver to Halifax.
❌ The only exception? St. John’s, where affordability actually worsened.
🔑 Example: In Toronto, the income required dropped by about $4,000… but buyers still need more than $200,000/year to qualify. For most, that’s still out of reach.
Lusink also noted prices are down around 4% year-to-date, but uncertainty from the ongoing U.S.–Canada trade war is keeping many on the sidelines.
📉 Why a Big Boom Isn’t Coming Soon
If you’re waiting for another housing frenzy like the one after 2020’s record-low rates, don’t hold your breath.
- Bank of Canada rate cuts are happening, but nothing like the plunge to 0.25% we saw in 2020.
- Economic challenges and global trade tensions are still weighing heavily.
- RBC predicts demand could heat up in 2026, but warns it won’t be explosive.
🏘️ Regional differences remain key:
- Growth: Prairies, Quebec, and parts of Atlantic Canada.
- Struggles: Ontario and BC, especially condo markets in Toronto and Vancouver.
📅 Rate Cut Predictions (as of August 25)
Markets are closely watching the Bank of Canada (BoC) ahead of their next rate decision on September 17.
Here’s how the odds currently look:
🍁Bank of Canada
- 📉 25 bps cut → 38% chance
- 🔒 No change → 62% chance
📊 The BoC is expected to remain cautious and hold steady, unless two key reports, the unemployment rate on September 5 and the inflation rate on September 16, shift investor sentiment.
✨ The Bottom Line
Yes, the housing market is stirring. But affordability challenges, trade uncertainties, and uneven regional performance mean buyers and sellers shouldn’t expect fireworks just yet.
📅 A slow and steady climb seems more realistic, with modest growth possible in 2026.
🔔 All eyes are now on the Bank of Canada’s September rate decision. If policymakers hold rates steady, the current gradual recovery could continue. But if they hint at future cuts, we may see a stronger boost in buyer confidence heading into the fall.
💬 Thinking of buying, selling, or refinancing? Now’s the time to plan ahead and get expert advice before the market shifts again.
